Real-Time Solar Wind Forecasting: Capabilities and Challenges

Journal for Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 69, 109−115, 2007

Real-Time Solar Wind Forecasting: Capabilities and Challenges

C.D. Fry
Exploration Physics Int., Huntsville, AL

T.R. Detman
NOAA/SEC, Boulder, CO

M. Dryer
Exploration Physics Int., Huntsville, AL
NOAA/SEC, Boulder, CO
Geophysical Inst., Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK

Z. Smith
NOAA/SEC, Boulder, CO

W. Sun and C.S. Deehr
Geophysical Inst., Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK

S.-I. Akasofu
Int. Arctic Research Center, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK

C.-C. Wu
CSPAR, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL

S. McKenna-Lawlor
Space Technology Ireland, National Univ. of Ireland, Maynooth, Ireland

Abstract

A user-friendly, real-time, observation-driven system for forecasting solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field conditions is described. The forecast system presently uses the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (version 2) kinematic solar wind model to predict, in real-time, solar wind conditions in the heliosphere, including at the location of Mars, and beyond. Properly characterizing and predicting this region of the space environment are essential steps towards improving the accuracy of "downstream" space weather models used to forecast the space radiation environment and geomagnetic activity. Representative modeling results are presented and the conclusion is made that uncertainty in determining the physical parameters needed for model inputs from real-time solar observations is the biggest factor limiting the accuracy of solar wind models used for space weather analysis and prediction. Future directions include extending the forecast system via a hybrid approach to include 3D MHD modeling.